Thursday, February 9th, 2012

Will Swine Flu Ruin Your Portfolio?

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In Monday’s news two odd words were the dominant words on every news channel including the financial networks: Swine Flu. What started as an unknown, mostly non-issue in Mexico quickly became a source of international concern as cases starting appearing all over the world including right here in the United States. What does that mean for your money?

It seems a little shallow of me to be writing an article about how a potential international health issue which has already killed more than 100 people could impact our money. Money just doesn’t seem as important as the potential health concerns associated with this.

I’m a little disappointed with the media coverage of the swine flu. At the time, less than 100 people had died and the few cases in the United States were “recovering normally.” This hardly seems like the pandemic that is being described. Not that it won’t be. Maybe it will but most outside of the media are saying, at worst, “we don’t know.”

All of this overblown fear of the next pandemic made the markets jittery. They were down nearly 100 points at the open, rebounded healthily at the mid day and ended up closing down 51 points. Airline stocks were down large amounts, healthcare stocks up, and greedy traders were plotting strategies to cash in on the reported swine flu trade.

The good news is one that is bigger than the swine flu. The story is that the bears had the perfect vehicle to bring down the market and bring it down big. The swine flu could have brought us down in triple digits and traders fully expected it. I haven’t looked or listened but I wonder how much short covering happened at mid day when it was clear that the bears weren’t going to do the damage they expected.

What will happen with the swine flu? I believe that nothing will happen and it will turn out to be a non-issue that gives the media something to sensationalize. Of course we all hope that all of us nay-sayers are right and if you’re a day trader, have fun with the volatility created.

I don’t want to minimize what seems like is a responsible response by the World Health Organization. I’m glad they’re keeping a watchful eye on it. My problem is with the media who has blown it up to much larger proportions than what it currently is.

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